Warmer weather, rising non-OPEC output threaten oil market balance

By David Gaffen

World oil demand will grow by around 12 percent by 2040 up to 104.9 million barrels per day, which is 1.4 million barrels above last year's forecast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest annual World Energy Outlook report.

Brent futures fell 95 cents, or 1.5 percent, to settle at $62.21 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost $1.06, or 1.9 percent, to end at $55.70, the lowest close for both contracts since November 3.

Crude oil stocks in the USA were seen down 2.850 million barrels, while distillates were expected to post a drop of 1.775 million barrels and gasoline inventories expected down 1.025 million barrels.

With slowing energy demand growth in China, India will account for nearly one-third of global growth by 2040, according to the latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The U.S. benchmark slipped 0.7 percent on Wednesday as Russian Federation believes it's too early to announce a possible extension at OPEC's meeting at the end of the month, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

"The oil market faces a hard challenge in Q1 2018 with supply expected to exceed demand by 600,000 bpd followed by another, smaller surplus of 200,000 bpd in Q2 2018", the agency said.

By the mid-2020s, the United States is projected to become the world's largest LNG exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade, said IEA.

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The data also showed distillate stocks in the U.S. Gulf fell to a one-year low, while overall refining rates rose in the latest week, led by a jump in East Coast refining, which is operating at a record 99.8 percent of capacity.

This sentiment comes in part on the back of rising USA oil output, which has grown by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million bpd.

Global oil demand is expected to keep rising over the next two decades, albeit at a steadily decreasing pace, according to a new report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency.

USA oil production has already increased by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to 9.62 million bpd and is expected to grow further. "This is a continuation of the strong demand growth we are seeing in our short term oil market analysis", the report said.

The IEA said non-Opec production would add 1.4-million barrels a day of additional production in 2018.

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.

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